Shipment value of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry is forecast to grow 5.5% year-on-year and reach NT$2.3 trillion (US$75 billion) in 2015, better than the global average, according to Yaru Shih, senior analyst with Taipei-based ICT research institute MIC (Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute). "Although the Taiwanese semiconductor industry may not be as sturdy as expected in the first half, the industry is likely to experience resilient growth in the second half," says Shih. "This is mainly ascribed to a sustaining high level of fab capacity utilization resulted from the increasing share of high-end process technology and packaging & testing services, and growing acceptance of wearables and IoT (Internet of Things)."
On the global level, a slump in PC shipments and the slower growth rate of smartphones are expected to tamper the global semiconductor market growth to around 3.8% year-on-year, to around US$349 billion.
Looking the different sectors of the industry, MIC estimates the Taiwanese fabless IC industry will grow at faster pace in the second half of 2015, owing to new product rollouts and seasonal demands. The industry therefore is forecast to grow at nearly 5% in 2015, with shipment value of around NT$557.5 billion (US$18.3 billion).
Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry Shipment Value by Business Type, 4Q 2014 – 2Q 2015
Source: MIC, May 2015
Taiwan's foundry industry witnessed a whopping 43.6% year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2015, driven mainly by the availability of advanced process technology. Coupled with modest growth expected in the second half of 2015 owing to mass production of wafers using advanced process technology, MIC estimates Taiwanese foundry shipment volume will hit around NT$1.0 trillion (US$33 billion) in 2015, up 12% year-on-year. Thanks to increasing demand for emerging applications like IoT and wearables and availability of 20nm process, Taiwanese foundry shipment value is anticipated to witness steady growth in 2015. Hence, the subsequent demand for smartphones and production yield on the use of advanced processing technology are two factors that are believed to affect the industry's performance this year.
Furthermore, MIC estimates Taiwanese DRAM shipment value will arrive at around NT$234.5 billion (US$7.7 billion), down 13% year-on-year. The decrease in user-end demand for PC and smartphones, coupled with the increasing number of dies made from a single wafer, is expected to affect DRAM shipment value in the first half of 2015. "The stable growth of DRAM shipment value will have to wait until the third quarter of 2015 when the user-end demand becomes stabilized."
Meanwhile, the Taiwanese IC packaging and testing industry is predicted to grow 3.2% year-on-year in 2015, with shipment value of around NT$421.7 billion (US$13.83 billion). Since the rollout of Apple watch in the second quarter of 2015, the demand for wearables has been growing strong as result of a gradual increase for SiP (System in Package). Additionally, the demand for communications products has also grown slowly that drives demand for high-end packaging technology like flip chip package. "As emerging markets' smartphone penetration is near saturation, this industry may still grow but not as fast," says Shih.
To see more about this report, please visit: Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry, 1Q 2015, Taiwanese IC Packaging & Testing Industry, 1Q 2015, Taiwanese Fabless IC Industry, 1Q 2015
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About MIC
Market Intelligence & Consulting Institute (MIC), based in Taipei, Taiwan, was founded in 1987. MIC is Taiwan's premier IT industry research and consulting firm providing intelligence, in-depth analysis, and strategic consulting services on global IT product and technology trends, focusing on markets and industries in Asia-Pacific. MIC is part of the Institute for Information Industry. https://mic.iii.org.tw/english